Structural Analysis with SVAR Model of the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Peru: 1995 – 2019




fiscal policy, shocks, convergence, structural and macroeconomics


Aim: The objective of this research work is the analysis of macroeconomic shocks on fiscal policy in Peru in the years 1995 - 2019, based on empirical evidence collected, a structural autoregressive vector model (SVAR) will be formalized.

Methodology: The SVAR technique offers the possibility of analyzing the dynamic interrelationships between a set of variables, which gives it greater possibilities to analyze and contrast theoretical models.

Results: In the first part, certain definitions and arguments that justify the use of this type of model will be shown, then we will show our variables to use and we will propose the model. Next we will show the basic steps to be able to work with time series, such as the unit root tests for our series in levels and then we will use a transformation of these to extract characteristics such that the model presents stability and convergence.

Conclusion: Then we will show the steps to be able to estimate VAR models, how to choose the optimal lags to later (through an identification process) obtain our structural model. In this part we will use a particular identification methodology and we will discuss its definitions and how economic theory is used to be able to impose restrictions. Finally, in the central part, the impulse-response functions will be estimated, which is (together with the decomposition of the variance prediction error and the history decomposition) the tool that will allow us to draw a conclusion and results about the dynamics of macroeconomic behavior.

Originality/value: will allow us to draw a conclusion and results about the dynamics of macroeconomic behavior.


Al-Hassan, A. S. A. (2023). Using the Induced Response Function to Measure and Analyze the Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Some Macroeconomic Variables. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(5), e01128.

Alves, B., Ferreira, Gisele y Nunes, Diego. “Fiscal fragility and business cycles in Brazil after the Real Plan: evidence from a dynamic factor model applied to VAR analysis” Revista Nueva Economia, Brasil (2020). DOI: DOI:

Blanchard, O. “Libro Macroeconomía” editorial Prentice Hall, segunda edición. Madrid. España (2004).

Castillo, T., Lahura, E. “los efectos de la política fiscal sobre la actividad económica en el Perú”. Revista Estudios Económicos BCRP N° 40. Diciembre (2021). Procedencia:

Cordova, J., Rojas Y. “Reglas fiscales y terminos de intercambio”. Revista estudios económicos N° 19, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, (2020).

Blanchard, O. y Perotti, R. ““An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press. Vol N° 117, Num.4 (Noviembre 2002) Procedencia:

Enders, W. “Applied Econometric Time Series” (Cuarta ed.). United State of America: University of Alabama (2015).

La Vinas, Lena. “Políticas sociales en América Latina en el siglo XXI: los programas de transferencias monetarias condicionadas”. Revista Desarrollo Económico Vol. 54, N° 212. Mayo-Agosto (2014). Procedencia:

Mendoza, W. “¿Puede una expansión fiscal ser contractiva? La efectividad de la política fiscal y la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública.” Documento de Trabajo N° 255, Departamento de Economía de la PUCP. Perú (2007).

Mendoza, W. y Herrera, P. “Macroeconomía un marco de analisis para una economía pequeña y abierta” Fondo editorial PUCP. Perú (2006).

Oklah, E. N., Razak, H. M. J., & Sabbar, A. A. (2023). Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Financial Crowding Out on the Iraqi Banking Sector for the Period From 2004 to 2020. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(4), e0872.

Restrepo, J. y Rincón, H. “Identifying fiscal policy shocks in Chile and Colombia. Central Bank of Chile and Colombia. (2006). Procedencia:

Roch, M. F. “The adjustment to commodity price shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru”. International Monetary Fund, USA. 2017.

Saldarriaga, M. Á., & Winkelried, D. “Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: An SVAR analysis” Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. Abril 2012.

Rodriguez G. y Vassallo R.. “Impacto de Choques externos sobre la economía peruana, aplicación empírica usando modelos TVP-VAR-SV” Consejo Fiscal del Perú y Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Documento de Investigación N°001-2021, Perú, marzo 2021.

Vasquez, F. Mesías, R. “Ciclos económicos, politicas y reglas fiscales” Estudios económicos, BCRP (2010). Procedencia:

Vidal, P. et al. “Un análisis regional de los choques monetarios y externos, el caso del Valle del Cauca en Colombia”. Cuadernos de economía 2021.(Santa fé de Bogotá) (40)82, 57-82.ódigo=7887342.




How to Cite

Crispín, A. R. M., Morales, S. A. G., Rivera, A. S. M., Santos, Ángel O. L., & Carrasco, O. A. B. (2023). Structural Analysis with SVAR Model of the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Peru: 1995 – 2019. Journal of Law and Sustainable Development, 11(6), e1201.